Probabilité implicite actuelle
Oui 25%+0.0%
Qualite du marche
44 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
37,4 €
Liquidité
1,6 k €
Faible liquiditéAchat / Vente
24.0% / 25.0%
Spread
4.2%
Spread modéréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
31 déc. 25, 19:1731 déc. 26, 0:00
Tendances
Résultat choisi
Yes25%
Marchés Associés
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
3,6 k €2: 63%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Highest monthly CO2 level at Mauna Loa in first half of 2026
848,8 €432 or less: 0.4%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
When will El Niño conditions be declared present?
1,2 €Before Jul 1, 2026: 70%
KALSHI
KALSHI
How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?
0,3 €At least 440: 89%KALSHI
KALSHI
Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?
0,1 €Oui: 77%KALSHI
KALSHI
Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
0 €Oui: 8%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETActifs dans ces sujets
Règles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
- The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf