KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Hodge Conjecture 92%+45.0ptEn tête parmi 5 options
Qualité du marché
33 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
344,6 €
Liquidité
1 k €
Faible liquiditéÉcart
85.0 pt
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 minutes
12 sept. 26, 22:00 UTC1 janv. 45, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
0%
0%
0%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketWill some Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhich Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?
Manifold MarketsWill some Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI before 2032?
Manifold MarketsWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
PolymarketWhen will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
KalshiRègles
If the named outcome is the first Millennium Prize Problem solved after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:The GuardianNational Academy of Sciences of the United StatesFinancial TimesAssociated Pressthe Clay Mathematics InstituteNaturearXiv preprint repository operated by Cornell UniversityRoyal Societythe American Mathematical Societythe International Mathematical UnionThe Washington Postthe New York TimesMax Planck SocietyAmerican Association for the Advancement of ScienceBritish Broadcasting CorporationQuanta MagazineThe Wall Street JournalFrench Academy of SciencesBloomberg NewsReutersProceedings of the National Academy of SciencesThe Economist
- A Millennium Prize Problem is considered Solved at the earliest time that any of the following occurs:
- A complete proof, disproof, or counterexample addressing the problem as officially formulated is published in a peer-reviewed journal.
- The Clay Mathematics Institute or another recognized authoritative academic body officially recognizes in writing that the problem has been resolved by reference to a specific written work.
- At least two Source Agencies report that the problem has been proven, disproven, or otherwise resolved by reference to a specific publicly available written work.
- If multiple problems have the same Solution Time, each is treated as the next problem Solved and the market resolves to 1/N, where N is the number of tied problems.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
- Également disponible sur Manifold Markets — Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next? · Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness 98%
Marchés ouverts
SciencePOLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.5pt4%
- September 30-0.6pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 59,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 176,8 k €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028-1.0pt13%
- Before 2027-1.1pt5%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 29,5 M €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 203580%
- Before 2030-9.1pt62%
- Before 2029-7.9pt17%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 271 k €
POLYMARKETAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
- No+10.9pt97%
- Yes-10.9pt3%
- Volume total
- 24,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 3,9 k €
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1-1.5pt75.8%
- 2+0.5pt24.2%
- 3-1.0pt0%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Yes-1.6pt73%
- No27%
- Volume total
- 302,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 2,8 k €
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- When will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- When will Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer be resolved?
- US solar capacity installed in 2026
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next? ?
- Kalshi cote Hodge Conjecture à 92% au 17 septembre 2026.
- Quand Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2045.
- Comment Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If the named outcome is the first Millennium Prize Problem solved after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Où Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next? est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur Manifold Markets.