Will any of OpenAI’s massive release of mathematical results be shown to be flawed by the end of November?
IAOne-Off
Manifold MarketsFerméSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréCe marché s'est résolu: Yes (99%)
Résolu: 8 oct. 2026, 11:37
Résolution vérifiée par le fournisseur
CoinRithm dispose d'éléments du fournisseur pour le gagnant et l'heure de règlement de ce marché.
Résultat Gagnant
Yes
À 7 jours
—
À 24 heures
37%
SurpriseAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 8 oct. 2026, 21:51 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Chronologie des Probabilités
Yes99%
No1%
Gagné
Perdu
Marchés Associés
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PolymarketRègles
[tweet]YES if, by November 30, there is a consensus in credible reporting or within the academic community that at least one of the core arguments, theorems, or proofs in OpenAI's GitHub repo is fatally flawed or incorrect.
- Otherwise, resolves NO.
- "Flawed" means a core mathematical or theoretical error is identified that invalidates the main result of the paper, and the error is either unfixable or difficult to patch.
- Nitpicks—such as minor typos, formatting errors, minor translation gaps in the Lean formalization that do not undermine the mathematical proof's validity, or easily patchable edge cases—do not count toward a YES resolution.
- The flaw has to be in the repo as it is released today - later hotfixes don’t remove an eligible flaw, but later additions don’t count either.