Manifold MarketsFerméSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréCe marché s'est résolu: Yes (79.8%)
Résolu: 11 oct. 2026, 05:01
Résolution vérifiée par le fournisseur
CoinRithm dispose d'éléments du fournisseur pour le gagnant et l'heure de règlement de ce marché.
Résultat Gagnant
Yes
À 7 jours
—
À 24 heures
—
Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 11 oct. 2026, 17:40 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Chronologie des Probabilités
Yes79%
No21%
Gagné
Perdu
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsAll Millennium Prize Problems solved before EOY?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiHighest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
PolymarketHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
KalshiRègles
Specifically, will before September 2026, will there be a proof of a finitely presented discrete MF group?
- If so, this would negatively resolve a long-standing open question about if all groups are MF.
- This was described as a major open problem in group theory, and a “holy-grail” alongside two other questions.
- GPT 5.6 Sol says the question is equivalent to: “Can every countable group be faithfully approximated by finite-dimensional unitary matrices when the approximation error is measured in operator norm?”
- This question resolves YES if a proof is given this month and is generally considered valid.
- If it takes longer than August to verify but the proof was written in August, it still resolved YES.