PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
7.9 or below 76.5%En tête parmi 7 optionsAjusté de la marge : les cotes brutes dépassaient 100 % au total et ont été normalisées.
Qualité du marché
63 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
43 €
Liquidité
6,3 k €
Liquidité moyenneÉcart
1.0 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
0
Variation 7j
+1.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
18 août 26, 14:53 UTC4 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
KalshiMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
PolymarketWhat will be the highest magnitude of an earthquake near the Phlegraean Fields in italy (Campi Flegrei) in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a 6.7 or greater magnitude earthquake in San Francisco in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an earthquake of at least 5.5 Magnitude on Cinco de Mayo 2027? (May 5)
Manifold MarketsWill there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2028?
KalshiRègles
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET.
- The "the named outcome" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
- The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
- Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9).
- The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
- An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude.
Marchés ouverts
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+0.9pt86%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029-21.9pt48%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 230,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 77,1 k €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,6 M €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 314%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 109,5 k €
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+3.0pt48%
- Above 1-2.0pt18%
- Above 2-6.0pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.7pt3%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 2,9 k €
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
- Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026? ?
- Polymarket cote 7.9 or below à 77% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026? doit être résolu le 4 janvier 2027.
- Comment Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET.