Manifold MarketsFerméSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréCe marché s'est résolu: No (97.4%)
Résolu: 11 oct. 2026, 19:33
Résolution vérifiée par le fournisseur
CoinRithm dispose d'éléments du fournisseur pour le gagnant et l'heure de règlement de ce marché.
Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 6 oct. 2026, 17:55 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Tendances
Gagné
Perdu
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2027?
Manifold MarketsAI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2028?
Manifold MarketsAI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 7 minutes before 2028?
Manifold MarketsAI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2029?
Manifold MarketsAll Millennium Prize Problems solved before 2030?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Jack Clark predicts YES: https://importai.substack.com/p/import-ai-439-ai-kernels-decentralized.
- Resolves to YES if any LLM released prior to 1 Oct 2026 exceeds the human baseline of 61.77% on https://posttrainbench.com/.
- Reasonable time (to at most 1 Nov) will be given after the deadline in case a model is released close to the deadline that might do it.
- Result does not have to appear on posttrainbench.com per se but needs to be credible, and not contradicted by the website.
- Resolves to NO if this does not occur.
- (Identical market to: source market)
