Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 51.2%
Prévisionnistes
161
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 minutes
26 août 25, 16:48 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 7 minutes before 2028?
Manifold MarketsAI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2027?
Manifold MarketsAI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2029?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
RSG = Random Seed Glitchless
- Must be Java version CAN:
- Can use scaffolds or similar.
- Cannot slow down game time or stuff like that.
- Can't get human help.
- Can't reverse engineer (by running scripts) what seed it is in from world features to know where structures will be before seeing them (eg blind travelling to the stronghold)
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2028? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 51% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2028? sera-t-il résolu ?
- AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2028? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2027.
- Comment AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2028? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : RSG = Random Seed Glitchless