Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 93.4%
Prévisionnistes
75
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète26 juil. 26, 22:15 UTC30 sept. 26, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Starship Ship 42 be the first to fly to orbit and be caught by the tower?
Manifold MarketsWhat happened in Ship 37's engine bay? [Add answers]
Manifold MarketsWhen will Starship first attempt propellant transfer from one ship to another in orbit?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
PolymarketRègles
It's fine if it's in many pieces.
- If it gets scuttled or sinks for other reasons this resolves No. If only parts are recovered to shore, let's say that a major part is enough.
- I'm imagining either the full nosecone, or the full ship without the nosecone.
- Just the engine section is not enough.
- (I'm open to further resolution suggestions!)
Marchés ouverts
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1 k €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume total
- 57,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4 k €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume total
- 817,9 k €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 93% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore? doit être résolu le 30 septembre 2026.
- Comment Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : It's fine if it's in many pieces.