Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 91.3%
Non 91.3%Prévisionnistes
2
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète14 sept. 26, 15:57 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
This market resolves YES if any organization successfully demonstrates a ship-to-ship transfer of cryogenic propellant in orbit before January 1, 2027 ("on orbit refueling").
- Only fuel transfer between two separate free-flying spacecraft qualifies as such, not internal tank-to-tank on a single vehicle.
- Candidates that would qualify:
- SpaceX's Starship "Chaser"/"Target" propellant transfer demo (NET Q4 2026 as of Sept 2026)
- NASA/Rocket Lab's Eta Space LOXSAT cryogenic fluid management mission, if it completes an inter-spacecraft transfer within the window
- Any other national space agency or company demonstration meeting the ship-to-ship criterion
