Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 61.2%
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 minutes
15 sept. 26, 20:44 UTC30 sept. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the Austin LessWrong's 2026 Winter Solstice be held at Silas's place?
Manifold MarketsWill any of Austin LessWrong attendees start a company with over 1M USD in revenue, in 2026?
Manifold MarketsPro Baseball Champion
KalshiMLB: Milwaukee Brewers vs Baltimore Orioles (Sep 19, 2026)
Robinhood (Rothera)MLB: Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets (Sep 19, 2026)
Robinhood (Rothera)MLB: Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays (Sep 19, 2026)
Robinhood (Rothera)Règles
As determined by post-event survey and group consensus.
- Austin LW has done a Petrov Day since 2015.
- Note: the group's leader will not be present at this one.
- Update accordingly.
Marchés ouverts
Baseball
POLYMARKETWashington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals
- Washington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals+54.5pt100%
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals — Yes+49.5pt100%
- Washington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: Full game — Over 8.5 total runs+48.0pt100%
+32 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1 M €
KALSHIPro Baseball Champion
- Los Angeles D-0.8pt27.4%
- Milwaukee-0.7pt16%
- New York Y-0.4pt9.4%
+27 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 66,6 M €
POLYMARKETSan Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers — Yes+56.5pt100%
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)100%
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: Full game — Over 7.5 total runs100%
+36 résultats de plus
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)MLB: Milwaukee Brewers vs Baltimore Orioles (Sep 19, 2026)
- MIL-1.0pt58.8%
- BAL41.2%
- Volume total
- 348,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 348,5 k €
POLYMARKETPhiladelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)+64.5pt100%
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: Full game — Over 8.5 total runs+52.5pt100%
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings — Over 2.5 total runs+36.0pt100%
POLYMARKETKansas City Royals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
- Kansas City Royals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: Full game — Over 8.5 total runs+52.5pt100%
- Kansas City Royals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings — Over 2.5 total runs+24.4pt100%
- Kansas City Royals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings — Over 3.5 total runs+40.0pt100%
- MLB: Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets (Sep 19, 2026)
- MLB: Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays (Sep 19, 2026)
- Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers
- MLB: New York Yankees vs Arizona Diamondbacks (Sep 19, 2026)
- Minnesota vs Los Angeles A: Total Runs
- Detroit vs Chicago WS: Total Runs
- A's vs Cleveland: Total Runs
- MLB: Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds (Sep 19, 2026)
- MLB: Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers (Sep 19, 2026)
- MLB: Kansas City Royals vs Pittsburgh Pirates (Sep 19, 2026)
- Seattle vs Colorado
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Austin LessWrong's Petrov Day 2026 be in the top 3 Austin Petrov Day's ever? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 61% au 20 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Austin LessWrong's Petrov Day 2026 be in the top 3 Austin Petrov Day's ever? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Austin LessWrong's Petrov Day 2026 be in the top 3 Austin Petrov Day's ever? doit être résolu le 30 septembre 2026.
- Comment Will Austin LessWrong's Petrov Day 2026 be in the top 3 Austin Petrov Day's ever? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : As determined by post-event survey and group consensus.