Will the Austin LessWrong's 2026 Winter Solstice be held at Silas's place?
One-OffSociety & Culture3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 81.7%
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète3 janv. 26, 19:50 UTC23 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiRègles
Same as in previous years.
- Resolve NO if held elsewhere, or not held at all.
- "Silas's place" means where Silas is living at the time, and moves as he does.
Marchés ouverts
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the Austin LessWrong's 2026 Winter Solstice be held at Silas's place? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 82% au 20 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the Austin LessWrong's 2026 Winter Solstice be held at Silas's place? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the Austin LessWrong's 2026 Winter Solstice be held at Silas's place? doit être résolu le 23 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will the Austin LessWrong's 2026 Winter Solstice be held at Silas's place? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Same as in previous years.