Margin of victory in the 2026 Brazil Presidential election runoff?
95.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffElectionLatin America4mo
PredictItCheck availabilityKYC requiredUnverified resolution dataRetail prediction exchange
Current implied probability
Lula da Silva, 2-4% 99%+95.0ptLeader of 9 outcomes
Lula da Silva, 2-4% 99%+95.0ptMethodology
Retail prediction exchange
Question type
-
24h Volume
$1.8K
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Oct 16, 26, 12:02 PM UTCMar 3, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
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The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the difference between the percentages of the popular vote cast in favor of the candidate who wins the most votes and the candidate who wins the second most votes in the 2026 Brazil Presidential election runoff (second round).
The percentage of the popular vote won by each candidate shall be determined by dividing the number of votes the candidate wins by the total number of valid votes for all ballot-listed and write-in candidates as officially reported.
The percentage of the popular vote won by each candidate shall be determined by dividing the number of votes the candidate wins by the total number of valid votes for all ballot-listed and write-in candidates as officially reported.
- The difference between candidates will be calculated from unrounded percentages.
- Should the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range.
- Should the two leading candidates receive an exactly equal number of votes, the candidate who is declared the winner pursuant to the official tie-breaking procedure shall be considered the candidate who wins the most votes for purposes of this market, and the contract identifying the lowest margin of victory for that candidate shall resolve to Yes.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. - Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
- If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.