How many Senate seats will Democrats control after the 2026 midterms?
49.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms1y
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Current implied probability
47 or fewer 50%+49.0ptLeader of 10 outcomes
47 or fewer 50%+49.0ptMethodology
Retail prediction exchange
Question type
-
24h Volume
$214
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Oct 22, 26, 2:45 PM UTCApr 30, 28, 3:59 AM UTC
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KalshiUS House Control After the 2026 Midterms
Robinhood (Rothera)Rules
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats in the United States Senate held by the Democratic Party following the 2026 midterm elections.
The number of seats that a party holds following the 2026 midterm elections will be the sum of the following: i) the number of U.S. Senate seats won in the 2026 midterm elections by candidates with a ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable affiliation of that party, and ii) the number of incumbent Senate seats not subject to re-election or special election in 2026 held by members of that party's caucus.
The number of seats that a party holds following the 2026 midterm elections will be the sum of the following: i) the number of U.S. Senate seats won in the 2026 midterm elections by candidates with a ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable affiliation of that party, and ii) the number of incumbent Senate seats not subject to re-election or special election in 2026 held by members of that party's caucus.
- In the event that a Senate seat is vacant but an election will not be held in the 2026 midterm elections, that seat will be considered to be held by the party associated with the seat's most recent incumbent.
For purposes of this market, a person switching parties on or after Election Day shall have no effect on resolution of the market.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. - If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
