How many Senate seats will the GOP control after the 2026 midterms?
1.0 pts (24h)One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms3mo
PredictItCheck availabilityKYC requiredUnverified resolution dataRetail prediction exchange
Current implied probability
47 or fewer 37%-1.0ptLeader of 11 outcomes
47 or fewer 37%-1.0ptMethodology
Retail prediction exchange
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$9.7K
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Updated 1 minute ago
Jul 15, 25, 1:46 PM UTCJan 23, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
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KalshiHow many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
KalshiRules
Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 05/27/2026.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats in the United States Senate held by the Republican Party following the 2026 midterm elections.
The number of seats that a party holds following the 2026 midterm elections will be the sum of the following: i) the number of U.S. Senate seats won in the 2026 midterm elections by candidates with a ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable affiliation of that party, and ii) the number of incumbent Senate seats not subject to re-election or special election in 2026 held by members of that party's caucus.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats in the United States Senate held by the Republican Party following the 2026 midterm elections.
The number of seats that a party holds following the 2026 midterm elections will be the sum of the following: i) the number of U.S. Senate seats won in the 2026 midterm elections by candidates with a ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable affiliation of that party, and ii) the number of incumbent Senate seats not subject to re-election or special election in 2026 held by members of that party's caucus.
- In the event that a Senate seat is vacant but an election will not be held in the 2026 midterm elections, that seat will be considered to be held by the party associated with the seat's most recent incumbent.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. - If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 05/27/2026 12:09 PM (ET)In response to trader inquiry:
The count will be based on a) the elected Senate candidate’s party affiliation on Election Day, and b) the number of incumbent Senate seats not subject to re-election or special election in 2026 held by members of that party's caucus on Election Day.
