Will Reps lose Senate Seat in any Trump+10 State and win in a Kamala State?
2.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms8d
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
No · —
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Stored reference
No 60%
No 60%Market quality
63 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$156.1
Liquidity
$28.5K
High liquidityOpen interest
$257
Bid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
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Comments
0
7d Change
-10.5 pts
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Sep 29, 26, 12:04 AM UTCNov 4, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, Republican candidates both 1) win one or more Senate races in states won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 Presidential Election and 2) lose one or more Senate races in states won by Donald Trump with a margin of victory of 10 or more percentage points in the 2024 Presidential Election.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
- If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected.
- A candidate will be considered to be a Republican if they are the nominee of or have a ballot-listed affiliation with the Republican Party.
- Candidates who run as independents or third-party candidates will not be considered to be Republicans regardless of affiliation or caucus decisions.