PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Awaiting verified resolution
CoinRithm is waiting for provider-confirmed settlement before treating this market as resolved.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 9, 2026, 1:56 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
September 15 100%+57.0pt
Market quality
65 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$18.4K
Liquidity
$58.2K
High liquidityBid / Ask
99.1% / 100.0%
Spread
0.9 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingSep 3, 26, 2:59 PM UTCSep 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Probability Timeline
September 15100%
September 30100%
100%
100%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Iran target Ukraine by which date?
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PolymarketWill Iran target Saudi Arabia by which date?
PolymarketWill a significant number of Palestinians from Gaza be permanently resettled in Egypt and/or Jordan under Trump's term?
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Jordan through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Amman time.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Jordan.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.