PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityNone before 2027 37.6%+0.3ptLeader of 29 outcomes
Market quality
66 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.7K
Liquidity
$232.6K
High liquidityBid / Ask
34.1% / 35.0%
Spread
0.9 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+4.1 pts
Market data
Updated 22 minutes ago
May 22, 26, 7:11 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
None before 202747%
Compare venues· Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Medium | 35% | +9pt | $1.7K | $232.6K | 22 minutes ago | |
 Kalshi80% match · auto | Medium | 26% | 0pt | $833.1 | $60.1K | 22 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?
3.0 pts2y
-1.0pt26%
+3.0pt15%
11%
+18 more outcomes
63 • Medium qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$98.9K
24h Vol$833.1
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration.
- If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
- An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
- If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first.
- If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
- For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA).
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$1.7kJul 226d of dataJul 27
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This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration.
- If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
- An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
- If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first.
- If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
- For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA).