KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before Jan 2027 68%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
51 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$267.6
Liquidity
$7.8K
Medium liquiditySpread
5.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
May 22, 26, 6:00 PM UTCOct 2, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Lee Zeldin still be a member of Trump’s cabinet by the end of his term?
Manifold MarketsNext Cabinet Official To Leave In 2026
SmarketsWho will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?
PolymarketWho will leave Trump's Cabinet next?
KalshiWhich Trump Cabinet members will remain in place by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsHow many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?
PolymarketRules
If any member of Trump's Cabinet leaves their office, or announces they will leave their office, from before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Any action related to Tulsi Gabbard will not qualify.
- The President announcing that a member of the Cabinet will leave the Cabinet also qualifies.
- For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP.
- Acting roles are not included.
- Leaving office as a result of death is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $804.1K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.4M
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- Next French Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave??
- Kalshi prices Before Jan 2027 at 68% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave? resolve?
- When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave? is scheduled to resolve on October 2, 2026.
- How is When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If any member of Trump's Cabinet leaves their office, or announces they will leave their office, from before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.