KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Awaiting verified resolution
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Current implied probability
Before Jan 2027 63%Leader of 5 outcomes
Before Jan 2027 63%Market quality
32 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Open interest
$10.3K
Medium open interestMarket data
Updated 8 minutes ago
May 22, 26, 6:00 PM UTCSep 1, 26, 1:28 PM UTC
Trends
Before Jan 202763%
Before Dec 202646%
Before Nov 202614%
Before Sep 2026Lost
Before Oct 2026Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?
PolymarketWhich Trump Cabinet members will remain in place by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsHow many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?
PolymarketWill Lee Zeldin still be a member of Trump’s cabinet by the end of his term?
Manifold MarketsWill any member of Trump's cabinet be convicted of a war crime by end 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill ANY Republican in congress vote to Impeach or Remove ANY member of the Trump Administration by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- Any action related to Tulsi Gabbard will not qualify. The President announcing that a member of the Cabinet will leave the Cabinet also qualifies. For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. Acting roles are not included.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jan 2027
- If any member of Trump's Cabinet leaves their office, or announces they will leave their office, from before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Dec 2026
- If any member of Trump's Cabinet leaves their office, or announces they will leave their office, from before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Nov 2026
- If any member of Trump's Cabinet leaves their office, or announces they will leave their office, from before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Sep 2026
- If any member of Trump's Cabinet leaves their office, or announces they will leave their office, from before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Oct 2026
- If any member of Trump's Cabinet leaves their office, or announces they will leave their office, from before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.