Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastJD Vance (Vice President) 99%Leader of 23 outcomes
Forecasters
39
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Nov 26, 25, 4:27 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many Cabinet members will Trump say he fired in 2026?
KalshiHow many US cabinet members will leave in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?
PolymarketHow many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?
PolymarketWill Donald Trump pardon any of his cabinet members from his second term?
Manifold MarketsWho will leave Trump's Cabinet next?
KalshiRules
Taking Cabinet members from here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_cabinet_of_Donald_Trump
- If a Cabinet member changes positions within the administration, they will resolve “No”.
- Announcing a planned departure but not vacating the position by the end of 2026 will not count.
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $808.4K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $28.3M
- 24h Vol
- $342.3K
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.2%
- Marco Rubio20.2%
- Ron DeSantis+0.1pt4.8%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
- 24h Vol
- $338.6K
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which Trump Cabinet members will remain in place by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices JD Vance (Vice President) at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Which Trump Cabinet members will remain in place by the end of 2026? resolve?
- Which Trump Cabinet members will remain in place by the end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Which Trump Cabinet members will remain in place by the end of 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Taking Cabinet members from here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_cabinet_of_Donald_Trump