Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast5+ 81%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
12
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJan 12, 26, 1:25 AM UTCJan 3, 27, 1:25 AM UTC
Trends
0.4%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many Cabinet members will Trump say he fired in 2026?
KalshiWhich Trump Cabinet members will remain in place by the end of 2026?
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Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRules
Leaving means leaving cabinet altogether.
- If someone went from one position to another in the cabinet, they are still in the cabinet.
- leave means leave for any reason. resignation, firing, impeachment, death and anything else counts as leaving.
- if JD vance becomes president this counts as leaving the cabinet.
- must have officially left their role before end of 2026(washington dc time).
- Announcement isnt enough.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
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+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
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- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
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POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How many US cabinet members will leave in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices 5+ at 81% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does How many US cabinet members will leave in 2026? resolve?
- How many US cabinet members will leave in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 3, 2027.
- How is How many US cabinet members will leave in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Leaving means leaving cabinet altogether.