KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
0 86.3%Leader of 6 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
61 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.4
Liquidity
$61.9K
High liquiditySpread
3.8 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Jan 18, 26, 10:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which Trump Cabinet members will remain in place by the end of 2026?
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Manifold MarketsWhat will Trump say during the United Nations General Assembly?
KalshiWhat will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
KalshiWhat will Trump say during remarks at Steel Across America?
PolymarketRules
If President Trump has announced that he asked for the resignation of, or fired, exactly 0 non-acting Cabinet members before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- An announcement will be considered to be made by President Trump if it is announced on President Trump's personal or official social media accounts, made by President Trump in a video or audio format, a direct quote from President Trump in written reporting, or otherwise written or released directly from President Trump.
- The withdrawal of a request for resignation, or the reversal of a decision to fire, does not negate the initial request for resignation or decision to fire for the purposes of this Contract.
- For the purposes of this Contract, it does not matter if the Cabinet member does not actually resign, is removed, or otherwise leaves the position.
- For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President's Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP.
- An "acting" member of the Cabinet is not included.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How many Cabinet members will Trump say he fired in 2026??
- Kalshi prices 0 at 86% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does How many Cabinet members will Trump say he fired in 2026? resolve?
- How many Cabinet members will Trump say he fired in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is How many Cabinet members will Trump say he fired in 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If President Trump has announced that he asked for the resignation of, or fired, exactly 0 non-acting Cabinet members before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.