KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityRobert F. Kennedy Jr. 26%-1.0ptLeader of 21 outcomes
Market quality
63 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$833.1
Liquidity
$60.1K
High liquidityBid / Ask
12.0% / 15.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 25 minutes ago
May 22, 26, 6:00 PMJan 20, 29, 3:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Pete Hegseth15%
Compare venues· Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall80% match · auto | Medium | 35% | +9pt | $1.7K | $203.8K | 5 minutes ago | Open → |
| KalshiThis page | Medium | 26% | 0pt | $833.1 | $60.1K | 25 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?
3.6 pts5mo
+0.5pt37.9%
+3.6pt28.2%
+8.6pt8.1%
+26 more outcomes
66 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$26.8K
24h Vol$1.7K
POLYMARKETRules
If Marco Rubio is the first member of the Cabinet of Donald Trump to leave or announce they will leave (such as by quitting, being fired, or being impeached) after May 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If two persons announce they intend to leave at the same time, then the one who leaves first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
- If multiple persons both announce they intend to leave and leave at the same time as other members, then the one whose last name is alphabetically first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
- A leave of absence does not constitute leaving the position.
- For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP.
- Acting roles are not included.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$833Jul 226d of dataJul 27
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If Marco Rubio is the first member of the Cabinet of Donald Trump to leave or announce they will leave (such as by quitting, being fired, or being impeached) after May 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If two persons announce they intend to leave at the same time, then the one who leaves first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
- If multiple persons both announce they intend to leave and leave at the same time as other members, then the one whose last name is alphabetically first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
- A leave of absence does not constitute leaving the position.
- For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP.
- Acting roles are not included.