U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by which date?
0.1 pts (24h)US PoliticsOne-OffRussia / UkraineGeopolitics2mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
December 31 · —
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Stored reference
December 31 8%Leader of 6 outcomes
December 31 8%Market quality
56 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$6
Liquidity
$11.9K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$1.5K
Bid / Ask
— / —
December 31Spread
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Comments
37
7d Change
+1.9 pts
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Aug 14, 25, 11:27 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
December 31Lost
February 4Lost
July 31Lost
June 30Lost
September 30Lost
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
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Market depth · December 31
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between August 14, 2025 and the named outcome, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Only agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify.
- The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification mechanisms, or strategic stability.
- An extension, amendment, or replacement of the New START treaty will qualify, provided it is publicly announced as a concluded agreement by both parties within the time frame.
- Exploratory discussions or stated intent to extend without a finalized agreement will not qualify.