PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSettled by the venue, market by market
Resolved: Nov 10, 2026, 10:58 AM
This event has no single winner. The venue settled each market separately; each market shows its own result.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Nov 10, 2026, 10:46 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
December 31 100%+1.6ptLeader of 3 outcomes
December 31 100%+1.6ptMarket quality
66 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$8.4K
Liquidity
$111K
High liquidityOpen interest
$10.1K
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingNov 7, 26, 3:56 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Probability Timeline
November 15100%
November 3098%
December 31100%
November 15100%
November 30100%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a direct or indirect diplomatic meeting between Russia and Ukraine between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A diplomatic meeting occurs when representatives of both listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in diplomacy on behalf of their respective governments or governing authorities deliberately meet for the purpose of diplomacy or negotiation.
- A qualifying meeting need not result in any agreement, joint statement, or further engagement.
- Representatives include officials mandated by their government or parliament to negotiate humanitarian matters on its behalf, such as prisoner exchanges, the return of civilians or children, or humanitarian pauses (e.g., Ukraine's Parliamentary Commissioner for Human Rights and Russia's High Commissioner for Human Rights).
- Mediators, envoys, or other third-party officials do not count as representatives of either listed country.