KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before Jan 1, 2027 66%Leader of 4 outcomes
Before Jan 1, 2027 66%Market quality
47 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1.6K
Liquidity
$4.3K
Medium liquiditySpread
7.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Sep 24, 26, 2:00 AM UTCOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
If the United States and Iran hold a senior-level diplomatic meeting after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The Washington PostFox NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe GuardianABCBloomberg NewsCBSSouth China Morning PostNBCthe Associated PressBBCAxiosCNNABC News AustraliaThe InformationSemaforMSNBCCBCReutersPoliticoThe New York Times
- Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market.
- Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify, unless the new article itself explicitly reaffirms the truth of the topic as of the publication date.
- Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
- The meeting must be deliberately convened for diplomacy or negotiation, and each country must be represented by at least one senior official who actively participates in an official capacity.
- It need not produce an agreement, joint statement, or commitment to further talks.