When will the U.S. and Iran hold a diplomatic meeting?
9.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsMiddle East20d
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before Apr 1, 2027 · —
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Stored price
Before Apr 1, 2027 66%Leader of 7 outcomes
Before Apr 1, 2027 66%Market quality
61 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$9.1K
Open interest
$29.6K
High open interestBid / Ask
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Before Apr 1, 2027Spread
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Market data
Updated 59 minutes ago
LaggingSep 24, 26, 2:00 AM UTCDec 1, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Before Nov 1, 2026Lost
Before Oct 1, 2026Lost
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Apr 1, 2027
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
If the United States and Iran hold a senior-level diplomatic meeting after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The Washington PostFox NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe GuardianABCBloomberg NewsCBSSouth China Morning PostNBCthe Associated PressBBCAxiosCNNABC News AustraliaThe InformationSemaforMSNBCCBCReutersPoliticoThe New York Times
- Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify, unless the new article itself explicitly reaffirms the truth of the topic as of the publication date. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. The meeting must be deliberately convened for diplomacy or negotiation, and each country must be represented by at least one senior official who actively participates in an official capacity. It need not produce an agreement, joint statement, or commitment to further talks. Only the part of a meeting held after Issuance counts; a meeting held entirely before Issuance does not qualify, even if reported afterward. A senior official is a head of state or government, vice president, foreign minister or other cabinet-rank minister, head of a national security council, presiding officer of a national legislature, special envoy, or anyone the head of state or government designates to conduct diplomatic negotiations on their behalf. Officials whose mandate is limited to technical, implementation, monitoring, staff-level, or preparatory discussions do not qualify. Qualifying officials include, without limitation, Donald Trump, JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Scott Bessent, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner for the United States, and Mojtaba Khamenei, Masoud Pezeshkian, Abbas Araghchi, and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf for Iran. The meeting may be direct, with the officials meeting face to face in person (interpreters permitted), or indirect, with both delegations physically present in the same facility, venue, or city for a single organized round of talks and an intermediary authorized by both governments relaying communications between them on the same calendar day in the meeting location's local time. Phone or video contact, chance encounters, and exchanges limited to greetings, courtesies, or photo opportunities do not qualify, nor do the proceedings of standing international organizations or recurring multilateral summits such as the UN General Assembly. A separately arranged bilateral meeting held alongside such an event may qualify. A meeting does not qualify if either country is represented only by persons lacking authority to conduct diplomacy or negotiation on its behalf. The incidental presence of supporting staff does not by itself disqualify a meeting.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Apr 1, 2027
- If the United States and Iran hold a senior-level diplomatic meeting after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Mar 1, 2027
- If the United States and Iran hold a senior-level diplomatic meeting after Issuance and before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If the United States and Iran hold a senior-level diplomatic meeting after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Feb 1, 2027
- If the United States and Iran hold a senior-level diplomatic meeting after Issuance and before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Dec 1, 2026
- If the United States and Iran hold a senior-level diplomatic meeting after Issuance and before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Nov 1, 2026
- If the United States and Iran hold a senior-level diplomatic meeting after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Oct 1, 2026
- If the United States and Iran hold a senior-level diplomatic meeting after Issuance and before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.