PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Mike Kelly (R) 93.9%Vig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Mike Kelly (R) 93.9%Market quality
69 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$60
Liquidity
$66.1K
High liquidityBid / Ask
5.2% / 6.1%
Spread
0.9 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
-1.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Jan 28, 26, 10:03 PM UTCNov 4, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
- The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
- A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
- A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
- This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
- If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for Mike Kelly (R) is 92%.
CoinRithm reference Mike Kelly (R) 92% · 2 venues · 0 pt venue spread
- Also available on Kalshi — PA-16 House winner? · Mike Kelly 94%