PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityDecember 31 32%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
65 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$546.9
Liquidity
$23.9K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
31.0% / 32.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spread7d Change
-6.0 pts
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
December 3132%
Compare venues· December 31
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall85% match · verified | Medium | 19% | — | $5.5K | $805.1K | 17 minutes ago | Open → |
| PolymarketThis page | Medium | 32% | — | $546.9 | $23.9K | 17 minutes ago |
Also available on Kalshi
Kash Patel out as FBI Director?
0.2 pts4d
+1.0pt19%
-14.0pt14%
-2.0pt14%
+4 more outcomes
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$1.9M
24h Vol$5.5K
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
- The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.0k68.6%POLYMARKETKash Patel out by December 31? — NoBunter.Hiden3d ago
POLYMARKETKash Patel out by December 31? — NoBunter.Hiden3d ago$1.2k61.7%POLYMARKETKash Patel out by December 31? — NoKnureKnume7d ago
POLYMARKETKash Patel out by December 31? — NoKnureKnume7d ago$5.0k94.6%KALSHIBefore Aug 1, 2026 — No10d ago
KALSHIBefore Aug 1, 2026 — No10d ago$6.1k94.9%KALSHIBefore Aug 1, 2026 — No12d ago
KALSHIBefore Aug 1, 2026 — No12d ago$1.2k86.0%KALSHIBefore Aug 1, 2026 — No16d ago
KALSHIBefore Aug 1, 2026 — No16d agoVolume trend
$547Jul 227d of dataJul 28
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
- The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.