KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Nov 1, 2026, 6:47 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
Before Jan 1, 2027 · —
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Stored price
Before Jan 1, 2027 18.5%
Before Jan 1, 2027 18.5%Market quality
36 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$33.6
Open interest
$4.5K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Before Jan 1, 2027Spread
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Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingOct 8, 26, 7:38 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Before Nov 1, 2026Lost
Before close: 1% ·
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Jan 1, 2027
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Kash Patel out by which date?
PolymarketKash Patel departure announced?
KalshiKash Patel gone as FBI Director before EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill at least five of the people on Kash Patel's "enemies list" be incarcerated on December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich people on the Kash Patel list of "Members of the Executive Branch Deep State" from his book will be investigated?
Manifold MarketsWill Kash Patel leave office by November 4, 2026?
PredictItRules
If Kash Patel has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Russia before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The GuardianFederal Bureau of InvestigationFox Newsofficial social media accounts of Kash Patel or their official representativesSemaforThe InformationCNBCthe Associated PressThe Wall Street JournalCNNPoliticoMSNBCThe Washington PostReutersofficial government sources of RussiaThe New York TimesBloomberg NewsAxiosABCCBSNBCBBC
- The following do NOT constitute a visit: Flying over the area without landing Layovers during which the person remains in an airplane Virtual or remote appearances Presence in international waters adjacent to the area Presence solely within embassy or consulate grounds Plans, announcements, or scheduling of future visits that do not occur during the applicable time period For the avoidance of doubt, a visit occurs only when the person exits an aircraft, vehicle, vessel, or train within the area, or otherwise physically enters the area not aboard one. Remaining aboard, including during flyovers, drive-throughs, and non-exit refueling stops, does not constitute a visit. Exiting within the area constitutes a visit regardless of duration or method of exit.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If Kash Patel has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Russia before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Nov 1, 2026
- If Kash Patel has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Russia before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.