Will at least five of the people on Kash Patel's "enemies list" be incarcerated on December 31, 2026?
Crime & JusticeOne-Off3mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 91.2%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleDec 14, 24, 5:40 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PredictItRules
The list consists of 60 people from an appendix in his book, as reported here: https://rollcall.com/2024/12/09/trumps-pick-to-lead-fbi-identified-government-gangsters/
- This question will resolve YES if and only if at least five of those 60 people are incarcerated for any reason as of December 31, 2026 (a little more than two years from the inception of the question).
- Update 2024-14-12 (PST): - Temporary jailing counts towards the resolution criteria - individuals only need to be physically incarcerated on December 31, 2026, regardless of conviction status (AI summary of creator comment)
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will at least five of the people on Kash Patel's "enemies list" be incarcerated on December 31, 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 91% as of September 14, 2026.
- When does Will at least five of the people on Kash Patel's "enemies list" be incarcerated on December 31, 2026? resolve?
- Will at least five of the people on Kash Patel's "enemies list" be incarcerated on December 31, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will at least five of the people on Kash Patel's "enemies list" be incarcerated on December 31, 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The list consists of 60 people from an appendix in his book, as reported here: https://rollcall.com/2024/12/09/trumps-pick-to-lead-fbi-identified-government-gangsters/