Will at least five of the people on Kash Patel's "enemies list" be incarcerated on December 31, 2026?
Crime & JusticeOne-Off2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.2%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 33 minutes ago
Dec 14, 24, 5:40 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which people on the Kash Patel list of "Members of the Executive Branch Deep State" from his book will be investigated?
Manifold MarketsKash Patel out by which date?
PolymarketKash Patel out by...? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsKash Patel departure announced?
KalshiKash Patel gone as FBI Director before EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Kash Patel leave office by November 4, 2026?
PredictItRules
The list consists of 60 people from an appendix in his book, as reported here: https://rollcall.com/2024/12/09/trumps-pick-to-lead-fbi-identified-government-gangsters/
- This question will resolve YES if and only if at least five of those 60 people are incarcerated for any reason as of December 31, 2026 (a little more than two years from the inception of the question).
- Update 2024-14-12 (PST): - Temporary jailing counts towards the resolution criteria - individuals only need to be physically incarcerated on December 31, 2026, regardless of conviction status (AI summary of creator comment)