PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 95%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$5.3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
5.1% / 5.2%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadComments
8
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Dec 11, 25, 8:33 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Elon Musk be charged with a crime in Spain or France?
KalshiWill JD Vance be charged with a crime by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
KalshiWill any Supreme Court Justice be charged with a federal crime?
KalshiWill the Hawk Tuah girl Hailey Welch be charged with a financial crime by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill at least one of Merrick Garland or Jack Smith be charged with a federal crime by 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any AI or LLM by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
- The charge or indictment of a company or organization behind the AI or large language model will not be sufficient.
- Charges or indictments must be of the AI or LLM itself.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Total Vol
- $280.7K
- 24h Vol
- $148.9K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $406.5K
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Most popular AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027??
- Polymarket prices No at 95% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027? resolve?
- Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any AI or LLM by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Where else is Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets.