Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 50.9%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleJun 23, 24, 2:49 PM UTCDec 31, 31, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Market resolves YES if I am the victim of a blackmail or ransom threat that heavily relies on AI which would be significantly more difficult (or impossible) for a human to execute without AI assistance.
- The market resolves NO if this does not happen by December 31, 2031, 11:59:59 UTC.
- The attacking message cannot be marked as spam/scam by whatever medium I am receiving the message in.
- There also needs to be a reasonable chance (>0.1% of readers/listeners) that someone would fall for the scam or pay the attacker.
- Examples that would result in a YES resolution:
- I receive a call claiming a loved one is held hostage, using an AI-generated voice of that loved one, demanding ransom.
