KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityBefore Aug 1, 2026 8%-4.4%Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$29.1K
Liquidity
$729.8K
High liquidityBid / Ask
6.8% / 7.5%
Spread
10.3%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Apr 3, 26, 2:00 PMAug 1, 26, 3:59 AM
Trends
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Before Aug 1, 20268%
Compare venues· Before Aug 1, 2026
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall85% match · verified | High | 52% | — | $10.8K | $78.7K | 2 minutes ago | Open → |
| KalshiThis pageMost active | Medium | 8% | — | $29.1K | $729.8K | 18 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Kash Patel out by...?
4.9%
-4.0%52%
-4.9%6%
-0.5%0%
+3 more outcomes
89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$1.6M
24h Vol$10.8K
POLYMARKETRules
If Kash Patel leaves as FBI Director before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Kash Patel must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.
- If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.
- Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.
- If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.
- For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$29.1kJul 212d of dataJul 13
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If Kash Patel leaves as FBI Director before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Kash Patel must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.
- If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.
- Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.
- If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.
- For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.