Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 97.1%
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617
Question type
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Jul 2, 24, 10:02 AM UTCNov 18, 26, 11:00 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Do you think the third World War will occur before the much-anticipated release of Grand Theft Auto 6? Share your thoughts and predictions in this poll.
- The prediction resolves to yes if war is declared between 2 or more of the super powers before GTA 6's release.
- Edit: declaration may be implicit - 03/07/2024 Edit: human troops are not a must to meet requirements to this question's criteria - 30/01/2025 Edit: length of conflict is also not a must to meet requirements - 30/01/2025
- Edit: fixed a weird comment by the AI summary, sorry for the confusion it may have caused. - 05/04/2025 Edit: small clarification that if GTA is delayed, this question would follow - 05/04/2025 Edit: GTA has been delayed to May 2026, thus this question will follow (https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjew84ev3yyo) - 03/05/2025 Edit: GTA has been delayed again to November 2026 (https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwypgvd9j8qo) - 12/11/2025
- Update 2025-01-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Development of Fully Mechanized Armies: The emergence of fully mechanized military forces (e.g., AI-driven drones, autonomous weapons systems) could enable a new form of direct conflict.
- In such a scenario, nations might be able to shield their populations in bunkers while launching large-scale, all-out attacks on their adversaries.
