Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 7:35 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 74.9%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleDec 1, 25, 2:32 AM UTCDec 31, 40, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves YES if a World War III occurs before the official release date of Grand Theft Auto 7.
- Resolution will be determined by whether a formal declaration of war or widely recognized international conflict meeting the definition of World War III has occurred prior to GTA 7's release.
- If a majority of news organizations call a conflict WW III, that will also be sufficient.
- GTA 7 is estimated to release sometime between 2032 and 2037, though no official release date has been announced.
- The market resolves NO if GTA 7 releases without a World War III occurring beforehand.
- Rockstar Games has not officially announced Grand Theft Auto 7, making the exact resolution date uncertain.
