Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 75%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleDec 1, 25, 2:32 AM UTCDec 31, 40, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will WW3 happen before GTA6?
Manifold MarketsWill WW3 happen before GTA8?
Manifold MarketsWill WW3 start before gta6?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketRules
This market resolves YES if a World War III occurs before the official release date of Grand Theft Auto 7.
- Resolution will be determined by whether a formal declaration of war or widely recognized international conflict meeting the definition of World War III has occurred prior to GTA 7's release.
- If a majority of news organizations call a conflict WW III, that will also be sufficient.
- GTA 7 is estimated to release sometime between 2032 and 2037, though no official release date has been announced.
- The market resolves NO if GTA 7 releases without a World War III occurring beforehand.
- Rockstar Games has not officially announced Grand Theft Auto 7, making the exact resolution date uncertain.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.0pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26M
- 24h Vol
- $717.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt49.6%
- October 31-2.0pt29.1%
- September 30-4.0pt12%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-21.5pt47%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $65M
- 24h Vol
- $116.9K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will WW3 happen before GTA7??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 75% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will WW3 happen before GTA7? resolve?
- Will WW3 happen before GTA7? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2040.
- How is Will WW3 happen before GTA7? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if a World War III occurs before the official release date of Grand Theft Auto 7.