Will we see a nuclear weapon used to attack another country within the next decade?
GeopoliticsOne-Off8yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 82%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleMay 6, 25, 9:15 PM UTCMay 6, 35, 9:13 PM UTC
Trends
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FutuurRules
Will a country use at least one nuclear weapon against another country from now til 2035?
- Update 2025-05-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that a dirty bomb will count towards a "yes" resolution.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will we see a nuclear weapon used to attack another country within the next decade??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 82% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will we see a nuclear weapon used to attack another country within the next decade? resolve?
- Will we see a nuclear weapon used to attack another country within the next decade? is scheduled to resolve on May 6, 2035.
- How is Will we see a nuclear weapon used to attack another country within the next decade? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will a country use at least one nuclear weapon against another country from now til 2035?