Will there be over 215 Republican seats after the midterm elections in the House of Representatives?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms9d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 8:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 82%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleMay 8, 26, 6:35 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to "YES" if the Republican Party holds more than 215 seats in the United States House of Representatives following the next midterm elections.
- It resolves to "NO" if the Republican Party holds 215 or fewer seats.
- The final seat count will be determined by the official certified results published by the Federal Election Commission (FEC) or the Clerk of the United States House of Representatives upon the commencement of the subsequent congressional session.
- Official updates can be tracked at https://www.fec.gov/ and https://clerk.house.gov/.
- The United States House of Representatives consists of 435 voting members.
