Will there be over 215 Republican seats after the midterm elections in the House of Representatives?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 80.8%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleMay 8, 26, 6:35 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
PolymarketRepublican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
PolymarketWill 3 or more Democrats flip seats in the 2026 midterm elections by running on anti-AI sentiment?
Manifold MarketsDemocrats gain Senate seats in 2026 midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsHow many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?
PolymarketWill Democrats sweep the 2026 U.S. Midterm Elections?
MyriadRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to "YES" if the Republican Party holds more than 215 seats in the United States House of Representatives following the next midterm elections.
- It resolves to "NO" if the Republican Party holds 215 or fewer seats.
- The final seat count will be determined by the official certified results published by the Federal Election Commission (FEC) or the Clerk of the United States House of Representatives upon the commencement of the subsequent congressional session.
- Official updates can be tracked at https://www.fec.gov/ and https://clerk.house.gov/.
- The United States House of Representatives consists of 435 voting members.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $804.1K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.4M
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- Next French Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be over 215 Republican seats after the midterm elections in the House of Representatives??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 81% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will there be over 215 Republican seats after the midterm elections in the House of Representatives? resolve?
- Will there be over 215 Republican seats after the midterm elections in the House of Representatives? is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2026.
- How is Will there be over 215 Republican seats after the midterm elections in the House of Representatives? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria