Democrats gain Senate seats in 2026 midterm elections?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 95.9%
Forecasters
40
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Mar 30, 25, 10:01 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Currently the Democrats hold 47 seats in the Senate (including the two independents who caucus with them, Sanders and King).
- This resolves YES if they GAIN seats (including any independents that caucus with them, or that a media consensus views as likely to caucus with them, or predominantly aligned with the democrat party and their views).
- If there are special elections or some sort of party flips of members between now and the election, this market will still require the democrats to gain seats during the midterms.
- That is to say, let's say one republican flips to being a democrat and there are then 48 dem seats in the senate, then they will have to have 49 seats after the midterm elections.
- If there are some sort of election-rigging claims, or the senate is disbanded, or the Trump admin stops democratic senators from being seated, or some other hijinxes ensue, I will use my judgement to ensure a fair resolution.
- Thus, I will not bet in this market.
