Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 52.6%
Forecasters
43
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleMay 18, 23, 10:12 PM UTCApr 21, 00, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurRules
A violent revolution for this question is defined as a definable movement pitting the populus against the government.
- This would involve the participation of at least 1% of the populace.
- A civil war is defined as an armed malitia or state backed group representing at least 1 million citicens going to war with the US military.
- The specifics of these definitions may be changed within a few weeks of creating the market by participants request , but my goal is to to keep them in line as much as possible with their actual definitions.