Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 94.7%
Forecasters
192
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 34 minutes ago
Aug 26, 22, 3:21 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 8:00 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurRules
"Civil War" means any large scale military action taken by some part of the country against come other part of the country.
- This could be military vs. civilian, military vs. military, or civilian vs. civilian.
- Actual violence must be involved, not just threats. "Large scale" means that it takes place in more than one city and each side has the support of a significant fraction of the country.
- It must be an attempt to conquer territory or people, not just riots.
- It's an "I know it when I see it" kind of thing.
- I won't bet.