What are the current odds for Will there be a civil war in Nigeria before 2030?

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 59.3% as of October 29, 2026.

Will there be a civil war in Nigeria before 2030

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 59.3%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Stale

Oct 25, 22, 1:30 PM UTCMar 1, 30, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

This question resolves to YES if there is a military conflict involving some part of the country against some other part of the country.

This could be military vs. civilian, military vs. military, or civilian vs. civilian.
Actual violence must be involved, not just threats.
There must be at least 1000 people killed in conflict.