Will the US sign a peace agreement based on Iran's 14-point plan before September 30, 2026?
PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsUS PoliticsMiddle East22dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.5%
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20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
May 5, 26, 6:40 PM UTCSep 30, 26, 10:00 PM UTC
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LimitlessRules
On May 3, 2026, Iran proposed a 14-point peace plan to the United States with a 30-day window to resolve outstanding issues.
- President Trump publicly stated he is reviewing the plan but expressed doubt it would lead to a deal.
- Polymarket comparable: 'US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31' currently at 14% YES.
- RESOLVES YES if the US and Iranian governments sign a formal peace, framework, or comprehensive agreement that incorporates substantive provisions from Iran's 14-point plan on or before 23:59 UTC September 30, 2026.
- Source: official US executive branch and Iranian government statements + reputable press confirmation that the agreement signed is based on the 14-point proposal.
- RESOLVES NO if no agreement is signed by the deadline, OR if an agreement is signed that does NOT substantively incorporate the 14-point plan (e.g., a parallel framework that ignores Iran's proposal).
