Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 76.5%
Forecasters
102
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleNov 10, 22, 4:57 PM UTCJan 1, 38, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolves to YES if it becomes illegal to develop certain forms of AI in all US states.
- It must either be a ban at the federal level or a ban that every state independently enacts.
- Bans that attempt to prevent specific outcomes don't count; the ban must be targeted towards general capabilities research.
- For example, "no neural networks with over 100 billion parameters", or "no recurrent neural networks" would resolve this market to YES. "No AI-generated pornography" or "no AI designed to operate a military drone" would not be sufficient to resolve this to YES.
- In essence, I want this market to resolve YES if it seems the government recognizes the problems with having unaligned near-or-above-human-level AIs running around, and tries via regulation to prevent the existance of AIs above a certain level of intelligence.
- I'm open to a better operationalization of this concept if one is suggested.
Open markets
Geopolitics
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.5pt74%
- September 18+1.0pt69%
- September 11+5.0pt66%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.8M
- 24h Vol
- $660.5K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.5pt75%
- New People (NL)-1.9pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.1pt3%
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+1.4pt50%
- October 3128.8%
- September 30-1.0pt11.9%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHIUS-Iran nuclear deal?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-4.0pt30%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-4.0pt22%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+1.0pt10%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- December 3110%
- November 30-1.5pt5%
- October 31-1.2pt3%
+6 more outcomes
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 77% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037? resolve?
- Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2038.
- How is Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves to YES if it becomes illegal to develop certain forms of AI in all US states.