Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 74.1%
Forecasters
49
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleMar 19, 26, 2:05 AM UTCMay 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
I have a $1000 bet with Geby Jaff, founder of Archivara, on this market.
- I am on the NO side, Geby is on the YES side.
- I will trade this market, but I will resolve according to the votes of the judges.
- The loser of the bet agrees to pay the winner $1000.
- Resolution criteria: A panel of 3 pre-agreed judges reviews the top 20 AI research papers published in May 2027.
- For each paper, judges assess: "Was the research primarily conducted by giving an AI agent a single high-level research goal (e.g. 'Can narrow finetuning produce broadly misaligned LLMs?'), after which the agent autonomously executed the full pipeline: literature review, hypothesis formation, experiment design, code implementation, running experiments, debugging, analyzing results, and writing up findings, with the human only stepping in to approve, reject, or minimally redirect at natural checkpoints?"