Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 80.4%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleApr 7, 26, 11:20 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRules
Przemek Chojecki used a "multi-agent harness" to generate an attempt at a FrontierMath Open Problem.
- Reception was mixed.
- This resolves YES iff by EOY, Paolo Cascini marks the problem as settled and credits ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf.
- The point of this market is that betting that your approach works shows that your submission is serious, rewards you iff your approach works, and rewards potential counterparties for investigating your approach.
Open markets
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-3.0pt55.9%
- ChatGPT-3.3pt24.5%
- Grok+2.4pt7.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.7M
- 24h Vol
- $118.7K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.8M
KALSHIWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
- Anthropic / Claude+62.0pt99%
- Video+55.0pt99%
- Royalty / Licensing+63.0pt99%
+14 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt62.5%
- 2026-10.0pt25%
- September 30, 2026-4.0pt12.5%
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 more outcomes
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.1%+8.0pt99%
- Above 3.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.2%99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $51.6K
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Anthropic market share this week
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- What will Macy's say during their next earnings call?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Paolo Cascini accept ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf this year??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 80% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will Paolo Cascini accept ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf this year? resolve?
- Will Paolo Cascini accept ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf this year? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Paolo Cascini accept ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf this year? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Przemek Chojecki used a "multi-agent harness" to generate an attempt at a FrontierMath Open Problem.