Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 90.4%
Forecasters
141
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJun 9, 25, 9:24 PM UTCFeb 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 months of his inauguration?
Manifold MarketsThe End of the Russia–Ukraine War in 2026
Manifold MarketsUkraine war ends in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf NATO troops fight in the Ukraine war, will Russia use a nuclear weapon?
Manifold MarketsRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
PolymarketRules
This should capture common sense intuitions around "war ends before the end of 2026".
- Resolves Yes if a formal peace agreement or armistice between Russia and Ukraine is signed before the end of 2026, and fighting between the major parties stops with no major flare-ups (>100 deaths) until the later of: the end of 2026, OR one month after it's signed.
- Temporary ceasefires that are later broken do not resolve yes.
- Temporary ceasefires that followed by a peace treaty do count, even if the treaty is signed after the end of '26, so long as fighting doesn't restart in the interim.
- A full agreement before the end of 2026, followed by a new war starting after 2026 still resolves Yes.
- Note: this means an agreement signed very late in 2026 must remain in effect for at least one month into 2027 for the market to resolve Yes.