Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBefore Jan 2027 13.6%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
22
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-4.6 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleJan 30, 26, 11:22 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 months of his inauguration?
Manifold MarketsUkraine war ends in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRussia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by which date?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a formal ceasefire agreement or peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine is signed and takes effect by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the governments of Russia, Ukraine, or the United States, or reporting from major international news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera, etc.) confirming the agreement's existence and implementation.
- The agreement must include a cessation of active hostilities.
- Technical or temporary pauses in fighting do not qualify.
- If a ceasefire is signed but subsequently violated before year-end, the market still resolves YES if the agreement was formally executed.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for The End of the Russia–Ukraine War in 2026?
- Manifold Markets prices Before Jan 2027 at 14% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does The End of the Russia–Ukraine War in 2026 resolve?
- The End of the Russia–Ukraine War in 2026 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is The End of the Russia–Ukraine War in 2026 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria