Current community forecast
Yes 61.3%
Forecasters
27
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleSep 2, 23, 6:37 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 7:28 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Nick Bostrom (philosopher, existential risk researcher) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
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Manifold MarketsBy 2028, will I believe that contemporary AIs are aligned (posing no existential risk)?
Manifold MarketsBy 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves Yes, if, before 2030, a poll conducted by one of the leading French opinion polling firms (e. g., ipsos) reports that IA Doom, or other formulation of the Intelligence Artificielle-related existential risk, ranks in the top 5 of concerns of French resident for the near future.
- Will resolves No, if the IA concerns are mostly about impact on the economy, unemployment or internet Spam rather than total human annihilation.
- If no polls is conducted, clearly this concern is not part of the French zeitgeist, and this thus resolves to No. En cas d'ambiguïté, un résolution N/À est possible.
