Will Toby Ord (existential risk philosopher) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Crime & JusticeOne-Off3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 5:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 98.1%
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17
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJan 10, 23, 12:19 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
Resolves "Yes" if there is credible reporting, or legal documents, showing that Toby Ord (existential risk philosopher) has been criminally charged with any felony crime.
- Resolves "No" if this does not happen by Jan 1st, 2030.
- Part of a large question series.
- Question is global -- charges in any country count.
- Charges count even if they do not lead to a conviction, were settled before a conviction, or if he was found not guilty.
- Minor misdemeanors do not count, only more serious (i.e. "felony") charges.