Will William MacAskill (philosopher and activist) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Crime & JusticeOne-Off3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 97.1%
Forecasters
28
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJan 9, 23, 3:33 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Richard Hanania (political writer) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Justin Sun (founder of Tron) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Ted Cruz (American politician and attorney) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWho will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
KalshiWill AI be charged with a crime before 2027?
PolymarketWill Elon Musk be charged with a crime in Spain or France?
KalshiRules
Resolves "Yes" if there is credible reporting, or legal documents, showing that William MacAskill (philosopher and activist) has been criminally charged with any felony crime.
- Resolves "No" if this does not happen by Jan 1st, 2030.
- Part of a large question series.
- Question is global -- charges in any country count.
- Charges count even if they do not lead to a conviction, were settled before a conviction, or if he was found not guilty.
- Minor misdemeanors do not count, only more serious (i.e. "felony") charges.
Open markets
Crime & JusticePOLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+17.0pt65%
- Yes-17.0pt35%
- Total Vol
- $404K
- 24h Vol
- $15.4K
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Total Vol
- $11.4M
- 24h Vol
- $7.9K
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt21%
- 20265%
- Total Vol
- $578.5K
- 24h Vol
- $6.6K
POLYMARKETAndrew Tate released from custody by which date?
- December 31-6.0pt13%
- July 31-0.1pt0%
- August 31-0.6pt0%
POLYMARKETMaduro Prison Time?
- No prison time+0.5pt42.2%
- 60++1.5pt38.2%
- 20–40-0.9pt8.8%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 30-0.5pt7%
+3 more outcomes
- Who will be arrested in 2026?
- Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
- What will Brett Kavanaugh say during his Notre Dame Lecture?
- Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- James Comey charges dropped by December 31?
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?
- Will Yale settle with DOJ over Law School admissions?
- Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will William MacAskill (philosopher and activist) be charged with any felony crime before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 97% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will William MacAskill (philosopher and activist) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? resolve?
- Will William MacAskill (philosopher and activist) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will William MacAskill (philosopher and activist) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves "Yes" if there is credible reporting, or legal documents, showing that William MacAskill (philosopher and activist) has been criminally charged with any felony crime.