Existential risk markets banned on Manifold before 2030

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Existential risk markets banned on Manifold before 2030?

Manifold Markets prices No at 95% as of October 28, 2026.

When does Existential risk markets banned on Manifold before 2030 resolve?

Existential risk markets banned on Manifold before 2030 is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.

How is Existential risk markets banned on Manifold before 2030 settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves as YES if markets that depend on the destruction of humanity to resolve as YES or NO are banned from Manifold before 2030.

Use this market in code or an AI agent

Free JSON for this market, no API key needed:

AI agents: call pm_data_event on the CoinRithm MCP server:

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Mar 1, 202795%
• Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt96.5%
• Before Jan 1, 2027-1.0pt93.5%

+9 more outcomes

Total Vol

$4.1M

24h Vol

$52.2K

POLYMARKET

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

• No+0.3pt96%
• Yes-0.3pt4%

Total Vol

$24.7M

24h Vol

$43K

KALSHI

Conference to Win the National Championship

• SEC+3.0pt38.5%
• Big Ten-1.0pt24%
• ACC

KALSHI

Will the Clarity Act become law?

• Before Oct 1, 2027+1.0pt19%
• Before Jan 1, 2028-3.0pt20.5%
• Before Jul 1, 2027-4.0pt

POLYMARKET

Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by which date?

• 202834%
• 2027+1.0pt14%
• June 30, 2027+1.5pt12%

+1 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

• Thom Tillis11%
• Kirsten Gillibrand9%
• Alex Padilla8%

+12 more outcomes

Total Vol

$448.9K

• Which companies will official announce an IPO before 2028?
• OpenAI’s valuation end of October 2026?
• When will Skims officially announce an IPO?
• Texas enacts data center moratorium by which date?
• SpaceX’s Market Cap end of November 2026?
• SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
• Missouri enacts data center moratorium by which date?
• Will Perplexity's valuation hit __ by October 31?
• Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
• When will Databricks officially announce an IPO?